What the Riots Tell Us [Iran]

The New York Times has an excellent editorial out today that succinctly lays out the case that the election was rigged, and hits the all the right notes with respect to Western negotiations with Iran. I want to draw your attention to a point they make rather quickly, and that I think needs more attention:

If the election were truly “real and free” as Mr. Ahmadinejad insisted, the results would be accepted by the voters and the government would not have to resort to such repression.

If you have a free, fair, and legitimate election where the incumbent wins with 62% of the vote, a truly decisive and staggering victory, there are no riots. There is no blood in the streets. There are no rallies with tens of thousands of angry people. There is no tear gas, there are no raids on University dormitories (warning: graphic photos in that last link). There are no motorcyles on fire. There are no beatings. The government does not need to shut off text messaging services to prevent people from communicating.

A candidate who gets only 32% of the vote is not a candidate with enough support to generate the kind of energy and willingness to face violence that Mousavi's supporters have shown. And an incumbent who wins with 62% of the vote does not need to arrest, beat, and detain the opposition.

Here are some examples of basically fair elections where the incumbent won with 60% or more:
The 1972 US election, where Nixon won with a landslide victory of 60%.
The 2002 run-off election in France, where Jacques Chirac won by 82%.
The 2006 Venezuelan elections of incumbent Hugo Chavez with 62%.
The 2004 re-election of Vladimir Putin in Russia with 71% of the vote.

And here are some examples of not-fair elections where there were riots:
The riots after the 2007 Kenyan election of Mwai Kibaki, where the margin of victory was less than half a million votes.
The 1969 Malaysian election.

Add more in comments.

UPDATE! Side-note to the Twitter-haters of the world: How do you like them apples?

UPDATE 2: An awesome aggregator of images from Iran coming real-time through Twitter. Also see some analysis and background at the NYT about Ahmadinejad's rise to power and what this means for his regime. Money quote:

When he was first elected president in 2005, Mr. Ahmadinejad showed his fealty to the leader, gently bending over and kissing his hand.

On Saturday, the leader demonstrated his own enthusiasm for the re-elected president, hailing the outcome as “a divine blessing” even before the official three-day challenge period had passed.