Iran Links

I'm increasingly distressed over what's going on in Iran. If you've been living under a rock for the last 48 hours, here's the deal: There was an election on Friday. This go-around, many international observers and people within Iran thought that Mousavi, a moderate challenger to Ahmadinejad's hardline presidency, had a decent shot at winning. At the very least, it was going to be a close race, and many seemed to think there was a not-insubstantial chance he would actually win. Iran's economy is not doing well, just like economies all over the world, and as everyone knows, the incumbent doesn't tend to fare well in an economic crisis. I've seen many people cite the figure that inflation in Iran has gone from 10.7% four years ago to 25% today. That's just one index of the effects of the recession that are affecting people every day.

According to several reports, the Ministry of the Interior, who is responsible for running the elections, called Mousavi on Friday Night soon after the polls closed and told him he had won the election. Which is weird, since we're talking about 45 million votes which have to be hand-counted. So Mousavi claims victory. But by the next morning, now Ahmadinejad is claiming victory with 62% of the vote total. Which, again, I don't know how on earth even a substantial portion of the ballots could have been counted by then. Not only does the Ministry of the Interior claim that Ahmadinejad has won, but it's by a huge margin, and he is even claimed to have won Mousavi's hometown by 60%. Can you imagine if, in the 2004 Election, Bush won by 62% and won Massachusetts with 60%? Right.

Meanwhile, SMS (text messages) were shut off for the entire country. Facebook and Twitter were blocked. Cell phone service were down. Reports emerge that Mousavi has been placed under house arrest. And people are rioting in the streets.

It's not looking good.

Here are some links to stuff I've found helpful.

-Juan Cole with a list of facts suggesting that the results were rigged.

5. Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations.

6. The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.

-Gary Sick has some great analysis, including some thoughts about implications for the US:

3. With regard to the United States and the West, nothing would prevent them in principle from dealing with an illegitimate authoritarian government. We do it every day, and have done so for years (the Soviet Union comes to mind). But this election is an extraordinary gift to those who have been most skeptical about President Obama's plan to conduct negotiations with Iran. Former Bush official Elliott Abrams was quick off the mark, commenting that it is "likely that the engagement strategy has been dealt a very heavy blow." Two senior Israeli officials quickly urged the world not to engage in negotiations with Iran. Neoconservatives who had already expressed their support for an Ahmadinejad victory now have every reason to be satisfied. Opposition forces, previously on the defensive, now have a perfect opportunity to mount a political attack that will make it even more difficult for President Obama to proceed with his plan.

-Laura Rozen at Foreign Policy has a roundup of updates on Sunday happenings.

-The Twitter feed of a student holed up at a University in Tehran.

-A blog tracking the events in pictures and video, Iran 101.

-The Daily Kos diary of Electronic Maji, who is communicating with sources inside Iran:

Every single agency, in and outside of Iran, and practically everyone who knows anything about the nation has declared this thing a Sham. The vote wasn't stolen, the vote wasn't EVEN COUNTED. It was invented. This coup has been bought around by the guard, and supported by the Ayatollah. The actions take are indefensible, and a group of hardline radicals are ignoring the will of the Iranian people.

-This Huffington Post blogger has up to the minute updates, video, and breaking news. Right now, the top story in the post is that a member of the German media trying to report on the election is missing and/or arrested.

-Also at that HuffPO link, apparently Ahmadinejad got on tv and stated that Iran is "the most stable country in the world." Yeah, tell that to the people who have already died and those who are getting the shit beat out of them:

The situation in the country is in a very good condition. Iran is the most stable country in the world, and there's the rule of law in this country, and all the people are equal before the law. And the presidential election has witnessed people's massive turnout. As I said, even in a soccer match, people may become excited and that may lead to a confrontation between them and the police force. This is something natural. A person coming out of a stadium may violate the traffic regulations. He wil be fined by the police no matter who he is, an ordinary person or even a minister.

-An interview with the former foreign minister of Iran, talking about some other very suspicious events, like the fact that they didn't release vote totals from specific districts and forbade Mousavi's supporters from serving as pollwatchers.

-The blog niacINsight has some great coverage of the events. I see there that apparently western media outlets have had their cameras confiscated and have been ordered out of the country.

-Now comes the NYT with confirmation that members of the opposition have been detained and beaten:

He opened his shirt to show long, red welts on his chest where a Basij militia member had whipped him with a chain. Next to him, a female friend dressed in a black chador stood with a bloody scar on her forehead; she said she had been attacked by the police.

I'll be updating tomorrow with more links to good coverage.