So I'm finally reading Mike Davis's 2001 book
Magical Urbanism
, and I cannot recommend it too highly to anyone interested in figuring out what's been going on politically under the Bush administration. The one thing the man got right was his claim that the Republicans were going to be the party for Hispanic voters; and if you think that the current anti-immigrant backlash under the Republicans is a mistake for them, well, let's just put it into context.
We all know that Latinos are not only the largest (non-white) ethnic group in the U.S., but also
the fastest-growng group, including whites. Contrary to popular racist opinion, by the way, this growth is primarily because of birth rates rather than immigration. Moreover, although Latino growth in the suburbs has become quite rapid, traditionally most growth has been in urban areas.
Now, remember how in the last election we realized that the Red/Blue divide is actually a
rural&suburban/urban divide? Guess which important electoral states have Latino populations large enough to affect a statewide presidential vote? Florida, Texas, California, and New York. I don't know what's going on in New York, but in the other three big Latino states, the Republicans have been working their white asses off trying to minimize the impact of the urban, Latino vote.
Under Tom Delay--you know, the guy who was indicted for money laundering and electoral fraud, forced to step down in disgrace, and still hasn't been convicted of shit--Texas
redefined its electoral districts to ensure Republican control of the state.
Florida's electoral scandals in 2000 are famous; good ol' Katherine Harris, you'll remember, went on from being Florida Secretary of State
and Bush's Florida Campaign Co-Chair to become a member of the House of Representatives. Y'all might recall that much was made of the Florida election's deliberate disenfranchisement of
Black voters, but very little was said about the effect of state election shenanigans on Hispanic voters, primarily because people assume that Florida = Cuban = Republican voters. But actually
the political power of non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida is growing: in 1996 Clinton won 30% of Florida's Cuban vote but 72% of the Hispanic vote in Florida overall--in other words, non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida vote Democrat. And in the contested 2000 elections, statistics seem to show that 62% went for Gore (not counting, of course, all the people whose votes didn't get counted).
In California this year, we've got the
"Presidential Election Reform Act", an initiative that even
Fox News says is designed to prevent California from voting Democrat. The idea is that instead of California's 55 electoral votes going to the winner of the state as a whole (usually a Democrat, because the coast, including LA and SF, is blue), the votes would be divided up by district--in other words, all the electoral votes assigned to the center of the state, the huge LA suburbs in Orange County and inland, and the immigrant-panicked San Diego area, would go to the Republicans.
The Latino vote matters in smaller states, too: for example,
New Mexico and Colorado both went heavily for Gore in 2000, and Arizona, that bastion of Republicanism, went for Clinton in 1996, partly with the help of the
fastest-growing Hispanic population in the country. Post-Katrina New Orleans has shrunk--
except for Hispanics--some of whom are illegal, but most are not.
Bush presumably knew this when he came into office talking about making the Republican party the party for American Hispanics, while the Republican
lack of support for their own leader's immigration bill demonstrates the party's own
response to the "problem" of growing numbers of Latino voters: clam down on immigration, persecute anyone with a Spanish surname or an accent, and
suppress the minority vote by shouting about "vote fraud" and intimidating Latinos with threats of deportation or investigation.
Unsurprisingly, the GOP is
losing Hispanic support; Bush's goal of getting the Latino vote with his schoolboy Spanish doesn't seem to be able to overcome his own party's bundling of anti-Latino, anti-immigrant, and post-9/11 xenophobic sentiments, especially with known bigot
Tom Tancredo actually running for the Republican candidacy.
Sadly, the Democrats seem to be doing the standard white liberal
outreach nonsense, rather than putting Latino issues front and center. What do the Dems plan to do to help reinvest in American cities? What do they plan to do about NCLB and anti-bilingual education? What do they plan to do to address the horrific
drop-out rate for Hispanic high school students? What, for god's sake, is our plan to support service workers, farmworkers, and industrial workers? Do we have any ideas about how to encourage and support small independent businessowners--restaurateurs, auto mechanics, bodega owners--against chains like Chipotles (owned by McDonalds) or Jiffy Lube or WalMart? How are we going to address the fact that one of the biggest effects of NAFTA (and globalization generally) is to help capital move across borders to set up maquiladores in Mexico and sweatshops in Los Angeles that pay sub-living wages to workers who aren't able to legally cross those same borders to find better-paying jobs? What are the Democratic candidates' positions on international relations with countries in Central and South America and the Caribbean?
Speaking of the Caribbean, one of the things that happens here in the U.S. is that we think of Latinos and Blacks as separate, often adversarial groups. But historically that isn't the case. In fact, the kind of Latino-Black fighting that goes on in, say, Compton--or the arguments about whether Latino immigrants are "taking jobs away from" low-wage blacks--is partly a result of fucked-up infighting over scraps between poor or disenfranchised subgroups in areas where white political and economic elites have consistently underserved poor neighborhoods and low-wage earners. In the short term, this sort of thing serves those same elites: as long as Blacks and Latinos (rightly) see that political leaders of either party aren't going to pay attention to them, turnout among those groups will continue to be low, and local leaders will necessarily focus on local power struggles over whatever minimal resources are available. If and when the two groups start coupling accumulated cultural and political power with growing numbers, however, (and in some Western states, perhaps, if and when Latinos and Indians come together, though this is a more difficult proposition because of the rhetorics of nationalism) white political elites will end up scrambling to keep up, and maybe shunted to the sidelines.
If the Dems can figure this shit out--and if California's anti-urban, anti-Democrat, anti-Latino "Electoral Reform Act" doesn't pass--it may or may not swing next year's election. But it's pretty damn obvious that these things are going to matter more and more in the near future. And any political leader or party who doesn't put Latinos front and center isn't likely to be winning elections for long.
Labels: Latinos, politics, racism